DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/15 11:33
Grain Trading Mixed at Midday
Soybeans lead at midday with trade fading from overnight strength. Wheat is
scoring fresh lows at midday due to absence of positive news.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 310 points higher. The
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 10 points higher.
Energies are firmer with crude up $1.05. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs
leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $3.80.
Corn trade is flat to a penny lower with trade looking to reestablish
footing going into the three-day weekend for Presidents Day and spillover
pressure from wheat. The second crop in Brazil is being planted in good
condition for now with planting heading towards the halfway point with early
rains looking to be good for germination. The energy complex is maintaining
recent gains to support ethanol a little more in the near term with better
seasonal action getting close, but ethanol futures are a penny lower this
morning. Corn basis should firm again with more weather disruptions. The daily
wire remained active on corn with 205,744 metric tons of corn sold to unknown.
On the March chart trade is just below the resistance clustered at $3.77-$3.79
with support at the lower Bollinger Band at $3.73 3/8, and the then low at
Soybean trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday moving back towards the
middle of the weekly range. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points
lower. South America weather should maintain the recent pattern in the coming
days with Brazil harvest moving along. Crush margins remain strong with meal
holding $300 a ton or better still, with basis likely to remain steady to
firmer on weather and the futures pull back. Trade talks will continue in the
U.S. next week with some progress scored this week. On the March chart
resistance is now the moving averages clustered at $9.13-9.15 which we just
below, and then the $9.01 support level from the early session lows.
Wheat trade is 4 to 9 cents lower with spread trade firming for the Chicago
intramonth spreads as well, with KC the weak side of the contract spreads
today. The U.S. has seen better export business lately, but world prices have
followed the U.S. selloff the last couple of days. The dollar rally has resumed
with new highs scored overnight. Cold weather is expected to keep some stress
on the Plains in the near term with winter wanting to hang around. On the March
Kansas City chart, support is low at $4.72 with resistance the 10-day at $4.95.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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